Guess how much water you get?

 Until now, the only place in Nebraska that has restricted irrigation use or even measured it has been the three counties in the Upper Republican NRD.  (URNRD)  However, with the agreement by the State of Nebraska to the Republican River Settlement, this all changes.  Now, the three NRDs in the Republican River Basin must not only collect information on the number of acres irrigated but also place meters on all wells and limit how much water can be used by acre.  While the URNRD has been doing this, it is now subject to further restrictions based on the actions of the other NRDs. 

The challenge comes with determining how much water each party gets.  Since historical numbers are unavailable, the region is left to some educated guesses.  Professionals call these guesses “estimates” and often refer to them as “determined by professional judgment.”   These guesses will determine your economic future and that of your non-farm neighbors. 

There are several key numbers:

  1. The quantity of water allowed to the State of Nebraska .
    1. This ranges between 226,000 and 415,000 acre feet of simulated water each year.
  2. The quantity of water used by the surface irrigator.
    1. This ranges between 85,000 and 121,000 acre feet each year.
  3. The quantity of water allowed to each NRD and, then, to each individual user. 
    1. There is no official procedure to establish this division.  The DNR is attempting to get the NRDs to agree to a negotiated split.  This is an area of significant disagreement with significant implications. 
    2. Allowed acre inch pumping per user under various assumptions
      Upper Middle Lower
      Actual avg inches used (NASS acres) 16.1 17.7 13.4
      Average inches used in UNL study 14.2 11.9 8.8
      Allowed inches with 5% reduction 13.5 11.3 8.4
      How is the 120,000 AF required reduction distributed?
      If based on Quick Response Acres 12.8 9.8 7.4
      If based on 2004 Certified Acres 12.2 10.0 6.6
      If based on 98-02 NASS Acres 12.0 10.1 6.2
      If based on 98-02 Volume 12.0 10.0 6.2
      If based on % suggested by DNR 12.1 9.9 7.2
      If allocation equal for each NRD 10.0 10.0 10.0
    1. As can be seen from the table, the method of allocating the Settlement-required cuts will have a significant effect on how much water is allowed to the individual user. 
  1. The number of acres historically irrigated. 
    1. Acres by District
      Upper Middle Lower Total
      1998 370,954 198,694 211,201 780,849
      1999 368,395 195,690 208,859 772,944
      2000 383,371 204,594 223,030 810,995
      2001 426,010 219,726 220,245 865,981
      2002 427,020 227,604 222,563 877,187
      Average 1998-2002 acres 395,150 209,261 217,180 821,591
      Estimated 2004 Certified Acres 448,000 312,000 330,000 1,090,000
      Increase in acreage from avg to 2004 52,850 102,739 112,820 268,409
    1. The number of acres for the three districts is estimated.  There is an explanation for virtually every number, and each number has legitimate challenges.  Because there are so many questions about the actual numbers, this is an area of likely conflict.
    2. The only entity with reasonably accurate numbers is the USDA.  However, the USDA will not release the numbers; so, the State and NRDs must make estimates.  These estimates will have a large effect on the amount of water allowed on each acre.
  1. Water Short year reduction requirements.
    1. The Republican River Compact Administration (RRCA) of which the Nebraska DNR is one of the three members, controls the computer simulation that determines this number.  A water short year is one where the water level in the Harlan County Reservoir is below a certain level.   The DNR anticipates this will occur one out of three years.  In water short years, additional reductions will be required.
    2. There have been no official statements on what these requirements will be.
  2. Lag Effect
    1. The DNR states that there will be additional future reductions required to compensate for the Lag Effect.  There is no official statement as to how much this will be, but unofficial reports are estimated at approximately an additional 1% reduction per year.
    2. The Lag Effect is an accounting matter.  A portion of previous years’ pumping is counted against the current year’s allowance. 
  3. The Depletion Factor
    1. This is the portion of the current year pumping that counts against the allowed usage.  This number varies by geology but is often simplified by distance from the stream.  The further from the stream, the less the current year cost. 
    2. This number is critical to determining the effectiveness of any reductions.  Making a cut on a well far from the stream will have little effect according to the computer simulation.  To have equal effect to cuts made on wells closer to the stream, wells far from the stream would have to be required to make a much greater real reduction.   Without access to these numbers (which only the DNR has and refuses to make available), it is impossible for the NRD to make an informed decision.  Making blind guesses here before consulting the computer simulation on where the most effective cutting can take place will cause more cuts than what is required to comply with the simulation.

All of the numbers are important in determining the future of the area.  However, the Depletion Factor may be the most important number of all.  It will tell the decision makers how much water use must be cut.  It will tell the planners the most effective location of making cuts.

All of the numbers may not matter as much if it is determined by the courts that accounting for the Lag Effect begins in 2003.  Before any NRD agrees to the DNR plan and before the DNR commits the State to a major change to the economy, they should know and understand what is actually required.

So, how much water does the farmer get to put on his field next year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years from now?  The law requires that amount to be much less than it is now.  Many of those who are in decision-making positions on this issue believe the allowed irrigation level should be no more than what can be sustained by precipitation. 

How much water can a landowner use?  The answer to this question will be determined by those who choose to get involved.