|
Upper Republican NRD Allowances and Depletions How much water is the URNRD allowed each year? How much Modeled water does the URNRD use each year? Is the URNRD over or under its allowance each year, and is it projected to be over or under its allowance over the next 35 years? Coming up with the answers is not easy. This is not because the Computer simulation that makes these estimates can't do the simulation, but because the URNRD has not asked for this information. Hence, it has to be pieced together from various sources. (Note that it is a major dereliction of duty for the URNRD to fail to obtain this information before agreeing to an Integrated Management Plan.) Definitions:
In the graphs below, the blue line represents the projected URNRD allocation for the next 35 years. It is very much a guess, as precipitation has a huge influence on this number. The DNR took the 1980 through 2000 weather pattern and assumed it repeated itself during 2001-2020 and 2021-2040. The trend is for the allocation to increase by about 1% per year due to a 20 year trend of increasing precipitation. The red line represents the depletions caused by the URNRD. As long as the blue line is above the red line, the URNRD is within its permitted usage. If the red line is higher than the blue line, then the URNRD must reduce usage to stay in compliance. The red line is growing at about 1% per year. The yellow area represents the volume of water the URNRD has as a credit or a shortage. The blue area represents the three year average surplus or shortage. The Settlement Agreement with Kansas permits 5 year averages and 3 year averages for the State of Nebraska. Here, we assume that the other NRDs are within their average allowance. These graphs shows that the URNRD would be out of compliance in 2012 and need to reduce usage by a couple thousand acre feet. It would be out of compliance again in 2022 and 2032. Remember that this makes a major assumption regarding the weather. Graph 1 assumes that CREP retires 50,000 quick response wells and that EQIP also retires 10,000 quick response wells. It also assumes that the Tri Basin continues to provide a credit to the Basin at the level it does now. Graph 2 assumes that the credit provided by the Tri Basin NRD ceases to exist. The URNRD would then need to make small additional reductions in the years the blue line is below 0. Graph 3 assumes that the Mound disappears and that CREP and EQIP also fail to exist. The URNRD would then need to make reductions in several different years and for much larger amounts. In summary, what the graphs are telling us is that a 5% reduction from 14.5 to 13.5 acre inches is unnecessary. It also tells us that if Tri Basin does not make any new reductions and that 60,000 acres of irrigated land is taken out of irrigated production anywhere in the Republican Basin, then over the next 35 years, few adjustments need to be made in order to stay in compliance with the Settlement Agreement. Graph 1
Graph 2
Graph 3
Data Sources:
|
