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Republican River Basin Compliance Via Acreage Reduction The following numbers are based on DNR data. The 2006 Overage and future overages are WaterClaim guesses. The DNR should provide estimates using the Republican River Compact Administration Model, as the Model is designed specifically to provide such estimates. But until the DNR chooses to provide such an estimate, WaterClaim numbers are the only numbers available.
The 15,000 acre feet we show for the future is what we believe the average overage will be after the year 2008, assuming current policies remain in place. The Model could give a much better estimate but only the DNR can provide that information. We estimate that the overage will grow by 1% each year due to the Lag Effect. Over the last 20 years Nebraska has been over its allocation by as much as 41, 000 acre feet as in 2005 and under by as much as 160,000 under its allocation as in 1983. Over the last 5 years, Nebraska has been over its allocation 4 of the 5 years by an average of 23,000 acre feet. During that same time, precipitation in the Basin has been above average 3 out of 5 years.
Shutting off all wells or shutting off wells that are close to the stream will eventually bring Nebraska into compliance. If compliance is achieved via the shut down of wells only, then all wells would need to be shut off for about 4 years in order to eliminate the current overage. That does nothing to address potential 2006 and 2007 overages. The shut down of all wells would devastate the economy. If one shuts down just the Quick Response wells, the economy would still be devastated, as of the Quick Response acres make up a substantial portion of the irrigated land, 44% in the Lower Republican, 31% in the Middle, and 20% in the Upper are Quick Response. (Quick Response acres are any acres watered with a well that is within 2.5 miles of any stream or tributary.) There are currently about 35,000 acres signed up for CREP. The table shows that these 35,000 acres will help Nebraska reduce its current overage of 104,000 acre feet by 2,613 acre feet in the first year. The growth in benefits you see here level off after 15 years.
The current CREP program permits 50,000 acres. There is an attempt to move another 20,000 acres from the Platte to the Republican. If all 70,000 acres are enrolled, then Nebraska will still be short about 10,000 acre feet (each year) of what it needs to stay in compliance in the future. However, since federal money is used, this is the least expensive water to purchase. CREP pays $125 an acre to take land out of production. This is not quite enough money to get all 70,000 acres. A small signup bonus of $50 an acre on the remaining 35,000 acres may be sufficient to obtain full enrollment. This will help reduce the cost of future year compliance. Reducing the amount of water a farmer can use on a field by 5% or 10% has almost no measurable effect on compliance with the Agreement. As can be seen, even the complete shut down of a well has to be done for several years to result in significant benefits. Because of the delayed benefit of shutting down acres, more acres must be shut off up front to achieve quick results. Assuming the State is responsible for compensation for denying a landowner access to water, then the costs of achieving the volumes necessary can be very expensive. The annual cost of retiring enough Quick Response acres is enough that even the State is likely to balk at compensating the landowner. If it were a one time payment, perhaps, but an annual payment with no end in sight is unlikely to be an acceptable solution.
Elimination of existing overages via acre reduction: Shutdown of all wells for at least four years. If Nebraska overages continue, then the number of years the wells must remain off is extended.
Elimination of future overages via acreage reduction: 70,000 acres of CREP. Shutdown of additional 130,000 QR acres for 3 years. Resume pumping on about 40,000 acres thereafter.
Cost of Compensation to a landowner for his loss of access to water: Average irrigated rent in Republican River Basin - $130 an acre. Average dry land rent in Republican River Basin - $30 an acre. Cost to compensate landowner for loss of access to water - $100 an acre. Primary question is, who will pay the landowner this compensation? If he is not paid, then communities are destroyed. Even if he is paid, there is no compensation for the businesses that depend on the farmer. And that is what most of the economy of the Republican River Basin is based on. The annual cost is enough that even the State is likely to balk at compensating the landowner. If it were a one time payment, perhaps. But an annual payment with no end in sight? |
