What is the Billon Dollar Lag Effect?

 Written by Steve Smith, board member of WaterClaim.  A non-profit educational organization set up in response to the Republican River Settlement agreement.  More information about WaterClaim can be found on their web site at www.waterclaim.org.

 100% of all water pumped from the ground must eventually be accounted for, according to the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, (NDNR).  A small portion of it is accounted for this year, some next year, some the next year until it is all accounted for.  The distance the well is from the stream determines the number of years the pumping must be spread over.  It is much like a depreciation schedule.  A well within 2.5 miles of the stream works on a three-year schedule.  A well 10 miles from the stream may be on a 10 to 1,000 year schedule.  This is what the NDNR is telling the farmers of Southwest Nebraska .

Large scale irrigation began in the 1960’s.  Each year for the last 40 to 50 years, the state has used large amounts of ground water.  The “pumping debt” from 50 years is still coming due.  Even if all pumping were to stop today, the State would continue to be liable for past pumping for many years.  The exact annual liability is computed by the Republican River Compact Administration.  The Nebraska representative to this group is the NDNR. 

If Nebraska irrigators continue to pump water, the water debt will continue to grow.  Even if the irrigators make the 5% to 30% reductions in use that the State is requesting, the debt will continue to outpace the ability of the State to compensate.  Eventually, virtually all groundwater pumping will have to stop, even though a vast reservoir of water will continue to exist. 

At first, the wells close to the river will be turned off.  As the years go by, additional wells will be turned off until almost all aquifer use stops. 

As the wells are turned off, the economy of southwest and south central Nebraska -- which is already struggling -- will die.

As mentioned before, even if all the wells are turned off, the State will still owe water to Kansas .  In a drought year, it may be impossible to provide Kansas with enough water, even if there is no pumping.

If this happens, then Nebraska will owe cash to Kansas for damages.  With all of the irrigators already gone, the cash debt will be paid by the taxpayers of Omaha and Lincoln. 

The Nebraska allocation for the Republican River Basin is about 300,000 acre feet per year.  The irrigators pump about 1,000,000 acre feet of water each year.  The other 700,000 acre feet of annual use is depreciated over 3 to 1,000 years.  Nebraska has accrued a water debt of about 700,000 acre feet per year for over 50 years. 

Only the NDNR knows the payment schedule and, to date, has refused to release any official numbers.  If the schedule is short (less than 100 years), then the State has already accrued debts that will devastate the regional economy and commit the State to large long-term debts that will dwarf the low level waste boondoggle.

Why write this letter?  Because we have been unable to persuade the NDNR to release the payment schedule, and we don’t know how large the problem is.  The information they have given us tells us that there is an enormous monster around the corner.  If the payment terms are short, then the problem is huge.  If the terms are long, then there is no need to eliminate the irrigator, and people in south central and southwest Nebraska may continue to farm, grow crops, feed cattle, and contribute to the State’s economy.

See Lag Effect Technical for a more detailed discussion.