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Scary Graphs
This means that the DNR is estimating that in about 2013 the URNRD will overuse its allocation by about 22,000 acre feet of Modeled water. To achieve 20,000 acre feet of Modeled water saving the URNRD would need to shut off all QR wells three years early. Those wells would need to stay off for much of the future. To compensate for the projected over use in 2033, a large percentage of the upland wells would have to be turned off many years in advance to achieve the savings when needed. See upland graph below. For this to work the DNR has to accurately predict future precipitation. This impossibility is made a little easier because averaging is allowed. Kansas and Nebraska settled on a three year average if Harlan County Reservoir cannot use most of its irrigation ability, a five year average if it can.
The Upper Republican NRD asked the DNR what the affect on the stream would be if all of the Quick Response wells (those within 2.5 miles of the stream) were permanently turned off. There are 88,000 QR acre in the URNRD. If all were shut off, then this is what the DNR projects would be the increase in the stream. This study was done in February of 2005. What would happen to the stream flow if you shut off all
of the upland wells in the URNRD in 2001 and left them off.
According to the DNR Model run the stream flow would increase by the
amount shown in this graph. See the 2nd graph for perspective. The blue line on the following graph is the same information at the blue on the above graph. For example, in the year 2014, the basin would have pumped about 500,000 acre feet of water out of the ground. In the same year there was an increase in the stream flow of about 16,000 acre feet. Remember the pumping does not have an affect in the year the water is pumped but instead on many years out in the future. So in reality the water that was not pumped in the year 2001 would cause the stream to increase its flow by a small amount in each of the many future years. After 40 years the DNR reports that 17,319,000 acre feet of water would not have been pumped out of the ground and this would after 40 years cause the stream to have an additional 751,000 acre feet over those 40 years. To put that in perspective it would be like you giving me about $450,000 a year and I will give you in return $18,800 a year. Actually almost nothing at first and then more toward the end, just like in the graphs. In other words, the only way to increase stream flow is to turn off all wells and even then the increase in the stream flow will be minimal. Those such as the Game and Parks, Tom Osborne, Robert Ambrosek, and Jack Maddox need to consider what they gain in exchange for the cost they pay.
Alternative solutions:
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