Anytime the red line is above the blue area, Nebraska is out of compliance.  The Allocation and the Consumptive Use are not synchronized in time with precipitation or pumping.  Droughts and wet periods do not have an immediate effect on the stream. Instead, their effect is over a number of years.  The black line is precipitation in the Basin.  You will notice the allocation moves independently of precipitation.  Thus, the drought of 2002 will have a significant effect in the future but is not the cause of current overage.  Similarly, pumping has a delayed effect on the stream and, therefore, it is impossible to achieve compliance on an annual basis by adjusting the pumpage allowed each year. 

Note that the consumptive use does not fluctuate in time or in magnitude with pumping.  This is because most of the pumping is far from the stream and, hence, does not affect the stream for years or decades.  The trend line shows that consumptive use grows at about 1% per year.  This is not because more acres have been added but because of the increased effect on the stream each year from historical pumping.  Once again, Nebraska is out of compliance if the red line is above the blue area.

If the blue line is below the red axis, Nebraska is out of compliance.  The cumulative consumptive use between 2003 and 2007 must be better than 0.  The 2003 through 2007 net consumptive use is -104,000 acre feet.

Even though Consumptive Use has been reduced over the last five years, the allocation has dropped at a much faster rate.  It is important to note that most of the drop in consumptive use is the result of surface irrigators not being able to access water.  Even though groundwater irrigators have also reduced usage, the benefits from their reductions will not be recognized until years and decades later.

It is very likely that the allocation will again increase; but, remember, the allocation is not directly related to precipitation.  Usually a rain that occurs 10 miles from the stream does not cause the stream to increase in the same year the rain occurs. 

The percentage Impact of shutting off wells demonstrates why it is so expensive to use the retirement of acres as a solution.  A well that is within 2.5 miles of the stream may pump 130 acre feet of water in one year.  If that well is permanently turned off then in year one, 10 acre feet of water will show up in the stream.   In year two, another 13 acre feet get to the stream that would not have if the well had been on two years earlier.  This data comes from the Nebraska DNR.  It is the official data and it is how the States compute compliance.

The most important point is that it is impossible to stay in compliance by adjusting the amount of pumping on an annual basis because both Allocations and Consumptive Use are the result of 10 different factors melded together from since 1918.  There are only two ways to stay in compliance.  One is to reduce usage by a large enough margin that, after the delayed benefits kick in, the State is protected from the normal fluctuations.  The other method is to increase the water supply in the years it is required.  The reduction method requires about 10 times as many acres to be taken out of production, at a cost of about $100 an acre, as the importation method.  The importation method requires about 1/10^th the acres at about $250 an acre foot.   The later is far less expensive and less disruptive to the economy.

If you need to reduce Consumptive Use by 10,000 acre feet then you need to shut off pumping to 133,617 acres to get the desired savings.  In the second year 98,000 acres need to remain off to accomplish the same 10,000 acre feet savings.  Formula assuming 130 AF CU per well.  (CU needed/CU Benefit) * 130 acres per well. 

If an upland well is shut off, the benefit to the stream is a little over 1% after 10 years and 5% after 40 years. As most of the wells in the Basin have been pumping for more than 40 years, it might be said that about 5% of the annual average pumping would be a depletion to the stream today.  Average annual pumping today is about 30% less than it was 20 years ago.  Today’s annual average pumping is about 930,000 acre feet.  Approximately 75% of that comes from upland wells.  Conversely, shutting off an upland well will not result in significant stream flow benefits in our lifetime.

If you need to reduce Consumptive Use by 10,000 acre feet then you need to shut off pumping to more upland acres than exist to get the desired savings or you have to leave all acres without irrigation for many years.

This means that anyone who suggests that lowering the allocation on an upland well is helpful, simply doesn’t know what they are talking about.  The lowering of an allocation by 10% on an upland will have no measurable effect on the Republican River in our lifetime.

The red area is the Net Consumptive Use that the Basin is responsible for.  The 2003 through 2005 is actual data.  The large drop in 2006 is speculation as is all data predictions through 2047.  We know the Consumptive Use responsibility continues to grow at about 1% each year.  There will be years when allocation exceeds depletions as we speculate it will in 2006.  There will be other years when supply exceeds allocations. In other words, the red area will be a jagged line but on average it will trend up at 1% each year.

The Benefit of shutting off all wells within 2.5 miles of all streams and tributaries, about 250,000 acres, is shown by the blue line.  Here we assume that all Quick Response wells are shut off in 2009 by order of a Federal judge.  It wouldn’t be until 2011 that the Basin would be in compliance due to the reduction in acres.  It is important to note that our 2006 and beyond numbers are guesses.  The DNR can provide forecasted numbers with a high degree of accuracy much like the hurricane forecasters can give a cone of probability.  So far the DNR has chosen to withhold all predictions.

Nebraska would be responsible for paying the damages due Kansas for every acre foot Nebraska is over its allocation.  That would be the entire red area prior to 2011.  In theory, it would also be responsible for paying the landowner an annual $100 an acre for each acre taken out of production.  The costs quickly become more than the State will choose to pay.  

The yellow line shows the benefit of CREP reductions.  They are a part of the Quick Response acres.

Colorado Accumulated Net Consumptive Use 2003-2005, 33,000 acre feet.  Annual average overage 12,000 AF.

Nebraska Accumulated Net Consumptive Use 2003-2005, 104,000 acre feet.  Annual average overage 34,000 AF.

The State assumed that surface Consumptive Use would remain at drought levels where there is no water in the reservoirs.  Assuming the reservoirs refill again then surface use could nearly double from current levels.  That will aggravate the problem.  The surface users have been without water for several years.  They have the right to use the water and one should expect them to do so.  This will increase the burden on the groundwater users.